Tuesday, September 9, 2008

Something to keep in mind

The New York Times
Dukakis Lead Widens, According to New Poll
Published: July 26, 1988

LEAD: In the aftermath of the Democratic National Convention, the party's nominee, Michael S. Dukakis, has expanded his lead among registered voters over Vice President Bush, the probable Republican nominee, according to a Gallup Poll.

In the aftermath of the Democratic National Convention, the party's nominee, Michael S. Dukakis, has expanded his lead among registered voters over Vice President Bush, the probable Republican nominee, according to a Gallup Poll.

This was among the findings of a national public opinion poll of 948 registered voters conducted late last week for Newsweek magazine by the Gallup Organization. The telephone interviews took place on July 21, which was the last night of the convention, and on the night after that.

Fifty-five percent of the 948 registered voters interviewed in the poll said they preferred to see Mr. Dukakis win the 1988 Presidential election, while 38 percent said they preferred to see Mr. Bush win. The poll had a margin of sampling error of plus or minus four percentage points.

This represented a shift in Mr. Dukakis's lead from the 47 percent to 41 percent advantage he held in the last pre-convention Gallup Poll, taken by telephone July 8-10. In that poll, 1,001 registered voters were interviewed.

Nominees usually enjoy a lift in the polls after the nomination. Ed Slaughter, project director at Gallup, pointed out that in 1984, Walter Mondale's standing rose 12 points after the Democratic convention that year. But the improved standing dissipated within ten days, Mr. Slaughter said.

Another poll, conducted in Texas, also showed Mr. Dukakis gaining ground from the convention. The survey of 504 registered voters likely to cast ballots, conducted on Friday and Saturday by Peter Hart, a Democratic poll taker, showed Mr. Dukakis leading Mr. Bush by 50 percent to 40 percent. A survey of that size has a sampling error of plus or minus four percentage points. A Hart survey of 265 such voters for The Chicago Tribune from July 5 to 9 had shown the race even in Texas - 46 percent for Mr. Dukakis, 46 percent for Mr. Bush, with a sampling error of plus or minus six percentage points. DON'T BITE!!!

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